how to evaluate biomass-to-electricity projects: a 5-step guide





January 19, 2026 by Rob Steir





As postulated in Carlyle’s New Joule Order report, nations will seek energy security, foremost, especially due to the surge in demand caused by AI, data centers, and bitcoin mining. At the local level, however, it’s every user for itself, and increasingly, electricity users who seek “reliable 24/7 electricity” will be exploring off-grid solutions due to the fragility of the electricity grid. In general, biomass-to-electricity projects can be a critical option for these local users (see Part 1), especially due to both the virtues and long-term impacts of biomass-to- electricity projects that every local electricity user should know (see Part 2).


This article, the final one of this series, outlines a 5-step sequential process for project developers and electricity users to determine if a local biomass-to-electricity project makes sense for them to seriously consider as a reliable electricity option:


Step 1: Know Their Reliable Electricity Needs


As electricity demand is set to exponentially rise by 2030 and beyond, it is critical that electricity users understand their own electricity requirements, over time, and if it is possible or not for them to be an off-grid user. Thus, they should:


- Identify their baseload (minimum daily) and peak (spike) requirements (and number of hours at peak usage per day).

- Plan for the long-term, i.e. what will their electricity needs look like 5 to 10 years out?


Step 2: Assess the Local Utility’s Reliability & Ability to Act


Utilities are under considerable pressure to service not only new customer with reliable energy demands, but existing customers whose energy requirements continue to grow. Thus, electricity users should:


- Find out if their local utility is experiencing any blackouts to deliver power to its current customers, or expects to have blackouts based on overall projected local electricity demands over the next number of years.

- Find out what is the projected timeline for new grid connections, if needed (often in years) for new and existing customers?

- Find out if the utility will be able to meet their current and future power needs, along with rising power demands from all other customers?





If future 24/7/365 utility power is questionable, a buyer should look at waste-to-energy systems as an alternative reliable electricity source (featuring pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion and gasification).


Step 3: Seek Viable Biomass-to-Electricity Technology Providers


It’s important to ask these waste-to-energy providers the following questions, once comfortable with their technology and how it works:


- How much electricity does their system provide per unit?

- Can more than one unit work together within the facility?

- How much waste is needed, per hour per day, for their system to reach maximum electricity output possible? It is continuous or batch processing of the waste?

- What type of waste can be used?  What needs to be done to the waste before intake. Shredding? Sorting?

- Is moisture a concern in their process? How does their waste system reduce moisture?

- Can they provide their system(s) within a reasonable time frame (from order to 1 st day of operations)?

- What is the projected CapEx costs and operational expenses to staff and operate?

- What’s the expected downtime of the system. Is the entire system off-line when down?

- What’s the expected electricity fees (per kWh) a buyer of their waste-to-electricity system needs to support viable payback and ROI?


Step 4: Secure a Long-Term Waste Stream


The challenge for potential buyers of waste-to-electricity systems is to make sure they can ensure a reliable supply of local waste over the project’s lifespan. Biomass projects live or die on feedstock.


-Determine if it will cost them money to collect and transport this waste stream, or can they receive, perhaps, tipping fees from the waste provider due to saving them money, from sending the waste to landfill?


[Note: Step 3 and 4 are interchangeable, and could be done concurrently or sequentially]


Step 5: Determine if the project is financeable (acceptable ROI and payback)


Once a waste-to-electricity system is identified and appropriate waste streams can seemingly be secured, the buyer has to financially run the numbers to assess the project’s fiscal viability.


In all likelihood, buyers will seek 3 rd -party project financing, possibly creating a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) directly for the project itself. Thus, a cash flow analysis must be completed, showing the CapEx and OpEx of purchasing and operating the identified system, as well as both the savings and revenues the buyer will expect, over at least a 5 to 10 year time frame.


- Conduct a cash flow analysis (CapEx, OpEx, revenues, and savings).

- Revenue streams may include:

+ Avoided utility electricity costs

+ Avoided tipping fees

+ Sale of primary products (biochar, syngas, bio-oil)

+ Sale of carbon credits (if available)

- Check payback period (ideally <5 years) and ROI.



Project Example: Data Center Buyer (DCB) Requires New MWs to Build Data Center


To illustrate how this 5-step process can work for a new electricity buyer, “DCB”, let’s assume this buyer wants to build a data center facility at a new location where they need a new electricity grid connection:


Step 1: Know Their Reliable Electricity Needs


DCB’s data center facility will require at least 3.5 MWs of electricity per hour for its baseload needs, for at least 20 hours per day (2 10-hour shifts) for 350 days per year. It anticipates the facility will require 6 MWs per hour at peak demand for 3 hours each weekday afternoon from 2pm to 5 pm.


Step 2: Assess Utility Reliability & Ability to Act


The local utility can supply this power, but says it may take 2 to 3 years to provide the connection to its grid. The utility has reported several blackouts during peak demand periods over the last year, causing concern from the buyer. The cost of electricity DCB would pay would be $0.15 kwh, once connected. This price would be expected to increase each year.


Step 3: Seek viable Biomass-to-Electricity Technology Providers


Faced with a lack of electricity for two-to-three years, DCB wants to look at renewable electricity options. It has identified 3 providers, including Frontline Waste. It learned that FrontLine Waste’s smaller waste-to-electricity modular system generates 1MW, and larger, modular system 4MW per hour, with a rule of thumb of 1MW for every 20 tons of dry waste processed. All waste, including MSW, needs to be sorted and shredded. Systems can be built in about 1 year, and operate 24/7, with a staff of 2 or 3 per shift, for 344 days per year at full capacity.


For DCB, the Frontline Waste JF System seems to be a viable option to consider, especially as it can be built off-grid, utilizing both a microgrid and battery storage.


Step 4: Secure a Waste Stream


To meet its electricity needs, DCB knows it will require securing between 80-100 tons of biomass per day to run the Frontline Waste system. Note: Another system provider has a larger unit that requires 300 tons per day. It also produces more electricity than what DCB needs and can only send its electricity to the grid. It’s not a viable option.


To secure the waste, the buyer has identified other companies and municipalities with 120 tons/day of waste streams that could be collected and transported to its future waste-to- electricity facility that will be situated near its new data center. It is able to secure 85 tons from one nearby municipality and two nearby companies. DCB agrees to pick up the waste from each of them, and the providers agree to provide the waste at no cost as they save on transportation and tipping fees they’d incur if they sent their waste to landfill.


[Note: Step 3 and 4 are interchangeable, and could be done concurrently or sequentially]


Step 5: Determine if the project is financeable (acceptable ROI and payback)


DCB identifies potential revenues:


- For DCB it would have paid, at least, $0.15 per KWh from its local utility, two years from now.

- As MSW is the waste stream sourced, biochar could not be produced, but charcoal can be sold to the local municipality as road aggregate and to the local cement factory.

- Buyer ABC believes it can secure carbon credits, too.


Assuming a savings of $0.15 kWh for each kWh its system produces for DCB, the Frontline Waste team presented a proposal, which included an estimated cash flow analysis for the buyer. It projects a payback safely under 5 years, without any carbon credits factored in or tax incentives.


In summary: DCB’s new data center faced a two-year utility delay and rising blackout risks. By securing 85 tons/day of local waste and adopting Frontline Waste’s 4 MW system, it could produce reliable electricity, 365/24/7, operate off-grid, lock in predictable energy costs, and achieve a sub-5- year payback—without even factoring in carbon credits.





The Final Takeaway


For developers and electricity users, biomass isn’t just an environmental solution—it’s a practical, financeable path to reliable power. The key is following a disciplined process: A user needs to know its baseload and peak electricity needs, assess the viability of accessing the local grid, evaluate waste-to-energy providers, secure feedstock, and confirm the numbers.


For those who want to read the previous articles:

Part 1: A Missing Piece in the New Joule Order: Biomass for Reliable Power

Part 2: The Virtues and Long-term Impacts of Turning Biomass Into Reliable Electricity




Rob Steir is a co-founder and partner in Frontline Waste. He is based in Delray Beach, Florida. https://linkedin.com/in/robsteir




REFERENCES

The New Joule Order, March 10, 2025 by Jeff Currie for Carlyle


ABOUT FRONTLINE WASTE BIOMASS-TO-ENERGY PYROLYSIS SYSTEM

For every 20 tons of dried biomass waste per day used within Frontline Waste’s modular (JF20 and JF60) pyrolysis systems, we can create a gross 1 MWe per hour or 24 MWe to be used each day. Our systems can both feed the grid, be used directly by an off-grid user, or be part of a microgrid for off-grid uses. https://frontlinewaste.com